Stock Market Blog -Aug 31st

The S&P500 finally closed above the 2000 mark this week, a new all time high. Meanwhile Bonds continued to rise as well! This is not normal -maybe we are seeing some European money flow into bonds... As we kick off September, we could begin to see the much anticipated pull-back in stocks.

Bond yields continued to drop, not just in the US but also in Europe.

New all time highs:      AVGO, AAPL, AMGN, BRK.B, GPRO, HD, ITMN, KOG, LNG, NOV, PSX, STX, TSLA, etc.
All time lows:   -

Pops:    AVGO, BKW/THI,    Drops:  ANF

Next week:  Economic reports,  -Monthly Jobs report on Friday. European Interest Rate meeting...

Earnings:     

Market Commentary

The market continues to inch its way higher, but has lost some momentum. I expect we'll see some kind of pullback or consolidation soon.

Implied Volatility in the Options market dropped again this week.  This may be an opportunity again to buy VIX related options.

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -New all time high!
10yr Interest Rates -dropping!
Labor Force Participation Rate (10 year chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up, closing around $95.96 -holding under $100!

Natural Gas was up, closing near 4.06
Gold was up a bit, closing at $1287 -still under $1300

The 30 year Bond was up, closing near 141.53

The US Dollar was up, closing near 82.78

...basically, everything was up  this week!

NEWS:

By the numbers: US economic recovery finally taking hold
'Rigged' market may be nearing top: TrimTabs chair
8 out of 10 active managers striking out this year 
Why Tesla's stock could gain another 17%
A dozen McDonald's outlets closed in Russia (vid)
Hedge fund industry snapshot: $2.6 trillion in 11,000 funds

Here's Why We Have Mixed Emotions About The Current Gold Market
China's economy is not experiencing a hard landing
Japan's economic revival is in jeopardy
Indian economy gets a jolt (vid)

Stock Market Blog -Aug 24th

Another non-stop rally this week as the 'shorts' scrambled to cover their positions! AAPL also finally crossed the $100 mark, hitting an all time high. Gold and Oil dropped.

New all time highs:      AAPL, DIS, EXPE, EXAS, FL, GILD, GMCR, INTU, LUV, M,  NFLX, TRN, and more...
All time lows:   -

Pops:    CRM, GMCR, HD, ROST, TJX    Drops:  SHLD

Next week:  Economic reports,  

Earnings:     ANF, BBY, DG, TIF, 

Market Commentary

We continue to see strength in the market with the S&P500 approaching 2000, another all time high. The bigger up-trend is still intact. The Nasdaq continues to stage an impressive rally, while the Small-cap Russell 2000 continues to underperform. Having rallied almost non-stop for 2 weeks, I expect we'll see some kind of pullback or consolidation next week.

Implied Volatility in the Options market dropped again this week.  This may be an opportunity to buy VIX related options.

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -New all time high!
10yr Interest Rates -dropping!
Labor Force Participation Rate (10 year chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was down, closing around $93.65 -holding under $100!

Natural Gas was mostly unchanged, closing near 3.84
Gold dropped, closing at $1280 -back under $1300

The 30 year Bond dropped, closing near 140.44

The US Dollar was up, closing near 82.34

NEWS:

Stock Market Blog -Aug 17th

We got a nice bounce this week as the monthly Options for August expired on Friday. The VIX dropped accordingly. The NASDAQ almost closed at an all time high on Friday. Bonds also rallied with stocks which is unusual, so we'll probably see one of them pull back next week. Oil couldn't rally -looks like we could see more downside action to just under $95. Tensions continued in the Ukraine area, along with the problems in Iraq.

New all time highs:      AMGN, BRK.B, CVS, DIS, GILD, HD, LUV, -the usual suspects
Also ADM, INTU, FISV, MAR, TTM, CAR, SKX  
TSLA hit a record high this week too...
All time lows:   -KING

Pops:    ICPT, MNST  Drops:  CZR, KING, SEAS

Next week:  Economic reports,  ...the 'Fed' speaks next week; also CPI on Tuesday

Earnings:     CRM, DLTR, FL, GME, HPQ, HD, INTU, LOW, SPLS, PETM, TGT

Market Commentary

Maybe this bounce is an opportunity to take a 'short' position in this area if it turns... we'll see what next week brings, but it looks like the up-trend may have broken for the short-term with the pullback we got a few weeks ago. However the list of  'all time highs' above still looks good, so be careful!

Implied Volatility in the Options market dropped this week.  Also, VIX futures expire next week.

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -will it rally through the 50MA?
10yr Interest Rates -dropping!
Labor Force Participation Rate (10 year chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was mostly unchanged, closing around $97.35 -holding under $100!

Natural Gas was down a bit, closing near 3.77
Gold was up a bit, closing at $1306 -back over $1300

The 30 year Bond rallied, closing near 141.03

The US Dollar was mostly unchanged, closing near 81.47

NEWS:

Stocks close mixed on renewed geopolitical concerns
Monster Beverage pops on Coca-Coal deal; Nordstrom drops
Wal-Mart joins retail miss parade as sales disappoint
Macy's miss doesn't bode well for other retailers
Cisco cutting 8% of workforce, or 6,000 jobs, in restructuring plan
Time to short the bond market or the stock market?

HUI, Gold & Silver; Fun With Monthly Charts

Stock Market Blog -Aug 10th

The market was struggling to catch a bounce last week. Maybe this week will be better. Bonds and Gold rallied. Earnings season is winding down, with some of the Retailers reporting this week.

New all time highs:    AMT, 
All time lows:   -ARCO

Pops:      Drops:  GRPN, S, TWX, WAG

Next week:  Economic reports,  

Earnings:     AAP, CSCO, DE, JCP, PCLN, CREE, WMT

Market Commentary

The Small-cap Russell 2000 (IWM) has been trading below the 200MA -not a good sign for the bulls. The Friday rally may have further to go, but it will probably be an opportunity to establish a short position. The DOW seems to be broken as well.

Implied Volatility in the Options market is trending higher. If you are an Options trader, Credit Spreads continue to be attractive here.

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -holding under the 50MA
10yr Interest Rates
Labor Force Participation Rate (10 year chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was mostly unchanged, closing around $97.65 -holding under $100!

Natural Gas was up a bit, closing near 3.99
Gold rallied, closing at $1310 -back over $1300

The 30 year Bond rallied, closing near 139.22

The US Dollar was up a bit, closing near 81.50

NEWS:

Here's what could rock stocks in the week ahead
Charting the S&P 500’s bearish technical turn
This market expert sees big upside for stocks
McDonald’s sales, stock suffer worst slump in a decade
China halts government Apple purchases
Portugal's Espirito Santo Banking Dynasty Collapses

Stock Market Blog -Aug 3rd

It was a week full of news events, and we saw the market drop for the first time in a long time -better than expected GDP, Fed meeting, monthly unemployment report, Chicago PMI, Argentina bond default, Gaza crisis, Ukraine crisis, etc. Interestingly enough, Bonds also dropped -so did Oil and Gold. All the 'experts' are now calling for a bigger market drop.

New all time highs:   EXPE, 
All time lows:   -

Pops:   BYI , FDO, LNKD, TWTR   Drops:  

Next week:  Economic reports,  

Earnings:     CHK, DIS, GRPN, KORS, ODP

Market Commentary

The DOW and the S&P500 broke down from the recent up-trend. The Russell was already broken. This could indicate further weakness ahead, so you might be able to sell rallies. If you use the 50MA as a trend guide, we now have 2 days under it. Also, we are now a bit oversold, so trading a small bounce might work.

Implied Volatility in the Options market is trending higher. If you are an Options trader, Credit Spreads continue to be attractive here, especially with earnings events. You can also trade Put credit spreads for a small bounce.

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -first signs of a breakdown
10yr Interest Rates
Labor Force Participation Rate (10 year chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil had a big drop, closing around $97.88 -finally under $100!

Natural Gas was mostly unchanged, closing near 3.80
Gold dropped, closing at $1295 -under $1300 again

The 30 year Bond dropped, closing near 137.94

The US Dollar was up a bit, closing near 81.37

NEWS:

Worst weekly drop for S&P 500 in more than two years
Warning: That plunge in stocks is just the beginning
3 market warning signs predict 20% stock tumble

Earnings Expectations For The Week Of August 4

Jobs numbers fall short of reality