Stock Market Blog -Apr 27th

The market pulled back on Friday after the recent rally. We saw some selling this week in popular names like AMZN, FB, NFLX, P, QCOM, T. We got a nice pop from AAPL after reporting earnings, and also a surprise 7:1 stock split. Next week we get more earnings reports, the Fed meeting, and the Jobs report on Friday.

New all time highs:   AGN, HCA, PSX
All time lows:   -

Pops:  AGN,  Drops:   P

Next week:  Economic reports,   * Fed meeting *,   * Monthly Jobs report *

Earnings:     

Mon - HLF

Tue - BMY, BSX, DDD, EBAY, MRK, PNRA, TWTR, VLO

Wed - MET

Thu - MA, CLX, KRFT, LNKD, COP, XOM,

Fri - CVS, CVX

Market Commentary

Looks like we may have hit some resistance after this recent rally. Lots of market events next week, so it's anyone's guess as to what will happen. If the market follows recent patterns, we are in for another down leg.

Implied Volatility on individual stocks tend to rise ahead of earnings, then drop sharply once the earnings are out. Options strategies can be used to take advantage of these predictable moves (e.g. selling Credit spreads).

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -forming a top?
10yr Interest Rates
Labor Force Participation Rate (10 year chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up, closing around $100.60  -dropping?
Natural Gas was mostly unchanged, closing  at $4.65
Gold was up, closing at $1300
The 30 year Bond was up a bit, closing at 134.94

The US Dollar was down a bit, closing at 79.82

NEWS:
How will the market react to Fed, earnings and jobs report? -Vid
Why it may not be smart to sell in May -Vid
How to play Apple’s surprise stock split -Vid
Why David Einhorn is right about tech stocks
Einhorn's Premature Bubble Call
Where Are All the Homebuyers?

U.S. Deficit Cut by Almost One-Third to $492 Billion: CBO
China New Credit Declines as Money-Supply Growth Decelerates 

We got a rally this week and recovered most of the losses from the prior week. Crude Oil is approaching $105, while Gold dropped below $1300 again. Lots of tech earnings next week, including AAPL, AMZN, and MSFT.

IBM dropped after reporting earnings. YHOO rallied, mostly based on its Alibaba ownership.

New all time highs:   COP, HAL, 
All time lows:   -

Pops:   SNDK, YHOO    Drops:   IBM

Next week:  Economic reports, 

Earnings:     

Mon - NFLX, HAL

Tue - T, MCD, YUM, GILD, AMGN, ISRG

Wed - AAPL, FB, QCOM, PG, BA, EMC

Thu - AMZN, MSFT, VZ, UPS, CAT, V, BIDU, CELG, SBUX

Fri - CL, F

Market Commentary

We did get a bounce last week as I expected. Not sure if we'll see any follow through next week though -my guess is that there is a good chance for more down-side action again.

Implied Volatility on individual stocks tend to rise ahead of earnings, then drop sharply once the earnings are out. Options strategies can be used to take advantage of these predictable moves (e.g. selling Credit spreads).

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -forming a top?
10yr Interest Rates
Labor Force Participation Rate (10 year chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up, closing around $104.30  -still above $100!
Natural Gas was up, closing  at $4.74
Gold dropped, closing at $1293
The 30 year Bond dropped, closing at 133.90
The US Dollar was up a bit, closing at 79.90

NEWS:

 U.S. Deficit Cut by Almost One-Third to $492 Billion: CBO
10 of the Best ETF Trades of All Time
China New Credit Declines as Money-Supply Growth Decelerates
Don’t Get Hit By a Falling BRIC

Stock Market Blog -Apr 13th

The market continued to drop this week for no apparent reason -maybe profit taking? The indexes are now in a losing position for the year. I mentioned last week that the DOW appeared to have made a double top. Bonds, Gold, and Oil were up for the week. The US Dollar dropped.

New all time highs:   UL, GPOR, 
All time lows:   -KING

Pops:   QCOR      Drops:   BBBY, HLF, JPM, GPS

Next week:  Economic reports,  MARKET IS CLOSED ON GOOD FRIDAY!

Earnings:     

Mon -C, 

Tue -INTC, JNJ, KO, YHOO

Wed -GOOG, IBM, AXP, BAC, COF, PNC, SNDK

Thu - MS, GS, GE, PEP, UNH

Fri -closed

Market Commentary

Could be an interesting week with lots of  companies reporting earnings, April Options expiration, and the markets closed on Friday. We could see a bounce from this extended sell-off  if volatility shrinks with Options expiration. Even if we do get a bounce for the week though, the markets seem to be in a bigger down trend.

Implied Volatility on individual stocks tend to rise ahead of earnings, then drop sharply once the earnings are out. Options strategies can be used to take advantage of these predictable moves (e.g. selling Credit spreads).

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -topped?
10yr Interest Rates
Labor Force Participation Rate (10 year chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up, closing around $103.74  -still above $100!
Natural Gas was up, closing  at $4.62
Gold was up, closing at $1319
The 30 year Bond was up, closing at 134.78
The US Dollar dropped, closing at 79.52

NEWS:
Stocks: Lousy end to a bad week
Good earnings could turn around markets
Apple vs Samsung: Why this trial will be harder for Apple
Herbalife shares plunge on report of FBI probe
8 pricey stocks haunting the Nasdaq

High fees eroding many retirement accounts
Roiled Markets In China Spell Trouble For Economy
Europe Folds As Putin Tells It To Pay Ukraine's Gazprom Bill, Or Else
Greece Dives Back Into the Bond Market

Stock Market Blog -Apr 6th

Stocks rallied for the week, then gave it all back on Friday after the Jobs report. Biotechs and some of the Techs were hit hard.  JNJ closed at an all time high however. This could be the beginning of a correction here. Meanwhile Bonds and Gold rallied on Friday as stocks dropped.

Note that the S&P500 hit an all time high on Friday before the sell-off!

Keeping an eye on the debt clock (on the left) -it is now over the $17,500,000,000,000 mark! It crossed $17T last October.

New all time highs:   APC, HAL, JNJ, MDT, PNC, SNDK, WFC, WDC, UTX
All time lows:   -

Pops:  APC, MNKD     Drops:  FB, NFLX, P, YELP, etc.

Next week:  Economic reports,  

Earnings:     AA, JPM, WFC

Nasdaq and Small Caps already in a down trend...

Market Commentary

Earnings season kicks off next week -lets see how the market reacts. The deluge of earnings really starts a week from now, so this week we may just be in a wait and see mode. The DOW looks like it may have double topped, while the NASDAQ and the Russell small cap index are already in a short term down-trend. The momentum and high-flier stocks have been hit hard too (e.g. BIIB, FB, NFLX, AMZN, TWTR...).

Implied Volatility on individual stocks tend to rise ahead of earnings, then drop sharply once the earnings are out. Options strategies can be used to take advantage of these predictable moves.

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -topping?
10yr Interest Rates
Labor Force Participation Rate (10 year chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was mostly unchanged, closing around $101.14  -still above $100!
Natural Gas was mostly unchanged, closing  at $4.44
Gold dropped again, closing at $1303  -so much for $1400!
The 30 year Bond was down, closing at 132.97
The US Dollar was mostly unchanged, closing at 80.57

NEWS:
Stocks: brutal finale to week
Irrational Nonexuberance for Stocks
The Rate Of Share Buybacks Has Doubled In The Last Decade
Google's stock split: not evil, just smart
Why Amazon faces an uphill battle in streaming video