Stock Market Update -Feb 28th

We saw very little change in the market this week. GDP figures were revised upward, though consumer confidence was down, unemployment figures were higher than expected, and housing sales were disappointing. Of course, Fannie Mae reported huge losses again!

After reporting earnings, BRCD and PALM were dumped, while TGT rallied.

Some stocks hitting ALL TIME HIGHS this week:
ARG, BIDU, ESRX, ROST, TEVA, MIL

New unemployment claims were up again, coming in at 496,000.
And two more banks were shutdown by the FDIC this week! (list).

Next week: We get the much anticipated monthly payroll report on Friday, along with a few more companies reporting earnings. A number of other economic reports are also scheduled to be released.

Market commentary: We are still in undecided territory -maybe this week will tell us if we go down further, or if we rally from here. I'd stay on the sidelines until we know where it wants to go. Keep your eye on the Dollar -if it continues to rally, stocks will probably dip again.

Commodities:
Oil prices were mostly unchanged, closing the week around $80 per barrel.
Natural Gas continues to drop, closing around $4.80
Gold prices were mostly unchanged, closing around $1118.
The US Dollar index was mostly unchanged, closing around 80.4.
30 year Bond prices rallied to just over $119. Watch for this to turn down soon (if stocks rally).

News:
Double-Dip Recession Fears Creep Back Into the Market
Recent Stats Indicate U.S. Economic Recovery Was an Illusion
Banks at risk of going bust tops 700
Debt-tastrophe
It’s Time for Swaps to Lose Their Swagger
Ohio man bulldozes $350K home to avoid foreclosure
Fannie to U.S.: We need another $15.3 billion

Stock Market Update -Feb 21st

The market rallied for the second week in a row as we cleared the 1100 level in the S&P500, and cleared the previous high reached on Feb 2nd (see chart). Friday was options expiration day, and once again all the 'put' buyers on the indexes were left holding the bag! (there was a huge bias to the 'put' side). Maybe now we will see a move lower?

The Fed raised the discount rate in a surprise announcement on Thursday, but so far it has had little effect on the equity market. Meanwhile the debt clock has now passed the $12.5 trillion mark! Meanwhile Gold has broken out past the November highs in the Euro currency.

After reporting earnings this week, HPQ was up while DELL was down. FSLR also dropped.

Stocks hitting ALL TIME HIGHS this week: BIDU, CY, DNDN, GIS, NFLX,

New unemployment claims were up, coming in at 473,000.
And four more banks were shutdown this week! (list).

Next week: Earnings season is almost over, but this week includes reports from BRCD, DNDN, LOW, HD, NEM, NTES, ODP, SHLD, TGT, TSL, and PBR. The week also includes economic reports on consumer sentiment, GDP, and housing. In addition, the government will borrow another $118 billion via Treasury auctions.

Market commentary: The market regained strength this week and may have started another 'up' leg -we'll find out shortly. If it can get past this area of congestion, we will likely see 1150 on the S&P500 again, otherwise we will likely go back down to test the 1044 level -quite a range! The latter scenario will likely play out if the Dollar continues to gain strength.

Commodities:
Oil prices were up, closing the week around $80 per barrel.
Natural Gas continued to drop, closing around $5.00.
Gold prices were up, closing around $1121.
The US Dollar index was up, closing around 80.76.
30 year Bond prices fell to around $116 as the stock market rallied.

News:
U.S. Stocks Gain Most Since November on Factory Orders, Profits
Fed’s Bernanke to Assure Congress Higher Rates Not Imminent
States short $1 trillion to fund retiree benefits
Obama Takes Deficits To New Frontier
Millions of unemployed face years without jobs
Getting Back Lost Jobs Could Take 5-Plus Years

Dollar Rises for Sixth Week Versus Euro After Fed Rate Increase
Tepid inflation gives Fed room to keep rates low
U.S. Mortgage Foreclosures Rose in Fourth Quarter
Coming Soon: 5 Million More Foreclosures
Insolvent European vs American States
The PIGS Problem Has Portents for the Euro 8 comments

Stock Market Update -Feb 14th

We finally got a small relief rally this week (see chart below), but the bigger picture still shows a downward trend for the market at this time. Concerns about Greece and sovereign debt of other European nations continue to linger. This could continue to push the US Dollar up, and maybe contribute to the stock market down trend.

On the bright side...
BIDU was up on great earnings this week, hitting all time highs!
DNDN also hit all time highs.


New unemployment claims were down, coming in at 440,000.
No bank shutdowns this week! (list).

Next week: The markets will be closed on Moday for Presidents day. Earnings reports continue with reporting from AMAT, DELL, HPQ, PCLN, MRK, DE, ANF, JCP, WMT, BUCY, FSLR, APA, CHK, DVN, XTO, and PWE, among others. A number of gold & silver miners report next week as well (ABX, AEM, AU, HL, IAG, KGC).

Don't forget that Friday is also Options expiration day.

Market commentary:
The trend is still down, as we see a downward stair-step pattern in the S&P 500 since the middle of January. If this trend continues, we could see some support in the 1020 - 1040 area.

Keep your eye on the gold mining companies this week as some of them report earnings. We could see a pop in the GDX and GDXJ ETFs, as long as the US Dollar helps to support a higher gold price.

Commodities:
Oil prices were up, closing the week around $74 per barrel.
Natural Gas closed around $5.50 -it seems to be in a downward trend for now.
Gold prices were up, closing around $1095. Next week might tell us if we are still trending down.
The US Dollar index was mostly unchanged, closing around 80.40.
Bond prices fell to around $118.

News:
U.S. stocks rise for the first time in 5 weeks
U.S. Foreclosure Filings Top 300,000 for 11th Month
Freddie, Fannie escalate delinquent loan buyouts
The next crisis: Commercial real estate
U.S. Economy: Retail Sales Climb, Consumer Confidence Slips
Growth won't dig US out of this hole
China’s Central Bank Hits Brake on Hot Economy
ProShares Launches Eight 3X Leveraged ETFs

Beijing Seen Vacant for 50% as Chanos Predicts Crash
Emerging-Market Stock Funds Post Outflows on Greece
Greece: How the Bond Vigilantes Left It in Ruins
Germans say euro zone may have to expel Greece
Euro net shorts reach another record high

The superstocks of the next decade

Stock Market Update -Feb 7th

We have now seen four straight weeks of losses, resulting in a 10% correction. I mentioned concerns about Greece last week, and sure enough the Euro dropped, the Dollar gained strength, and the market got spooked, causing the DOW to dip below 10,000. However we could see a pause in the selling next week (we saw a big reversal on Friday). The monthly payroll report on Friday showed a loss of 20,000 jobs and the unemployment rate at 9.7 percent.

MCD hit an all time high this week before reversing.
CME profit more than triples amid 2008 write-downs
Visa Beats on Higher Transactions
MasterCard Profit Misses Street View: Shares Drop


New unemployment claims were higher than expected, coming in at 480,000.
And another bank was shutdown this week! (list).

Next week: Earnings season continues with reporting from DIS, KO, and S, among others. We could see a nice bounce in these companies if the market cooperates. Also scheduled to report are PNRA, CAKE, and CMG.

Market commentary:
The market reversed course on Friday, possibly signaling a brief rally to come. The sell-off will eventually resume however as it seems the bigger rally is over for now. Gold and Silver prices might dip one more time before resuming the up-trend (I expect Gold to approach the $1000 level before reversing course).

Commodities:
Oil prices were up, then fell, closing the week around $71 per barrel.
Natural Gas was up, closing around $5.50.
Gold prices were up and down, like Oil, closing around $1050.
The US Dollar index was up, closing near 80.50.
Bond prices rallied up to $119.50, as stocks tumbled further.


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