Stock Market Update -Jul 26th

The markets pushed higher again this week, breaking out past the early January high (see chart). Next stop on the S&P 500 could be the 1000 level from last November. Better than expected earnings reports continued to drive the market higher every day over the past two weeks (except for Microsoft and Amazon reports last Thursday).

Once again, the number for new unemployment claims was below 600,000, this time at 554,000; also, seven more banks were shut down by regulators this week (list).

Commodities: Oil prices rallied further to just over $68 per barrel. Gold closed the week around $953, while the US Dollar was down again for the week. Bond prices were also down for the week as stocks rallied. Sugar prices continue to rise.


Next week earnings continue to roll in, XOM and CVX included. This will give us a clue as to where the energy sector is headed. The US will be borrowing a massive amount again next week by issuing Bonds and Notes (over $200 billion). We could see bonds rise in value, and stocks dip as a result. The GDP report is also due on Friday and could be a market mover.

Market analysis: We are clearly in a strong 'up' trend (2 weeks non-stop), and could see a short pullback before resuming a run to 1000 on the S&P 500.

U.S. Stocks Rally, Dow Tops 9,000 for First Time Since January
Mid-Cycle Meltdown: Jobless Claims Report
The Economy Has Hit Bottom
State budgets walloped again
Get ready for banking's next headache
Regional banks on the brink
Can Citi Ever Turn It Around?
No Exit for Ben
Some Weekend Thoughts By John Mauldin

Stock Market Update -Jul 19th

Good earnings reports from the big banks and from technology companies pushed the market back up nicely this week. This caught most people by surprise. Now we are back at the top of the range, with a slew of earnings reports coming next week.

Once again, the number for new unemployment claims dropped below 600,000 to 522,000. This number could be somewhat misleading though because it is a seasonally 'adjusted' number. Four more banks were shut down by regulators this week (list).

Commodities: Oil prices recovered to just over $63 per barrel as the dollar fell in value again. Gold closed the week around $937, while the US Dollar was down for the week. Bond prices were down again for the week.


Next week watch for more earnings reports, including AAPL, MSFT, and AXP.

Market analysis: Well, we got the earnings reports, and in a surprise move they lifted the markets out of the downtrend last week. Now we need to get past this resistance 'top' formed in early June if the rally is to continue.

Earnings goose a rally - for now
China's economy grows 7.9% in stunning rebound
Foreclosures Up 15% Since January 2009
Nine Reasons the Economy is Not Getting Better
General Electric Loses Spark
Intel Rally Has Room to Run
The US-China Ponzi scheme
Hedging Your ETF Bets

Stock Market Update -Jul 12th

The downtrend in the market continued this week (see chart). We are hovering around the 880 level on the S&P500 that I mentioned last week. The coming week's earnings will help to decide whether we break down below this level, or whether we bounce back up. GM emerged from bankruptcy this week, a lot earlier than first expected.

We got some encouraging news from the unemployment data this week. For the first time in almost six months, the number for new claims dropped below 600,000. Every week I've been reporting this figure over 600,000, but this week it came in at 565,000. We also saw another bank shut down by regulators (list).

Commodities: Commodities continue their downward slide. Oil prices continued to drop, closing just under $60 per barrel. Gold closed the week around $912, while the US Dollar is still in a trading range. Last week I said "We could see oil, gold, and other commodities take a tumble from here".

Bond prices were up again, as stocks fell (how do you sell billions in bonds? ...just sink the stock market!)


Next week we get get earnings reports from some of the big banks (BAC, C, JPM, GS), as well as IBM, INTC, GOOG, and GE. We also get a few economic reports, so we could see more volatility, and perhaps get a better sense of whether the market will continue to head down.

Market analysis: The downtrend is in place now, with uncertain times ahead. This would be a good time to either hedge your positions, or exit on any bounce. Meanwhile, the debt clock keeps ticking (see left icon), now over $11.5 trillion!

Oil falls below $60 as IEA report reaffirms demand concerns
A second half recovery is suddenly not a sure thing
Bernanke's $1 trillion hangover
Wondering Why The Chinese Laughed at Geithner?
Goldman Sachs Loses Grip on Its Doomsday Machine: Jonathan Weil
AIG Plans Millions More in Bonuses

Stock Market Update -Jul 5th

We continue to see red in all sectors! The market seems to be headed back down again -we'll see how far this pullback takes us.

New Unemployment claims for the week came in over 600,000 again. The monthly payroll report on Thursday was a big disappointment, pushing the unemployment rate up to 9.5%. This week seven more banks were shut down by regulators (list).

Commodities: Oil prices saw a sharp drop down to around $66 per barrel. Gold closed the week at $931, while the US Dollar is still bouncing up and down in a trading range. We could see oil, gold, and other commodities take a tumble from here. Bond prices were up, as stocks fell.


Next week kicks off the quarterly earnings season again, with Alcoa and Chevron among those scheduled to report.

Market analysis: The second quarter is now over, with the Technology sector and the NASDAQ leading the gains for the year (see chart below). The market looks like it has started to reverse course and head down, but with a flood of earnings reports coming in the next few weeks, anything could happen. We could see some initial support around 880 on the S&P 500.


Stocks: A Midyear Assessment
Are We Heading For A Correction Or Another Meltdown
Why the Nasdaq Outperformed the Blue Chips
Wall Street's giving tips again
Job Losses Dampen Hopes for Recovery
Home prices post 18.1 percent annual drop in April
New Evidence on the Foreclosure Crisis
Another wave of foreclosures is poised to strike

Cash-poor California turns to IOUs
The Rising Mountain of Debt May Be the Next Crisis
The Greatest Currency Trade of the Millennium
India Joins Russia, China in Questioning U.S. Dollar Dominance
China's banks are an accident waiting to happen to every one of us
Great Depression vs. 'Great Recession'
Depressions Take Time